IMF WEO Revision: Growth Shock, Recovery in 2027?
Following a period marked by tighter trade conditions and heightened uncertainty, the global economy is facing a new shock linked to the recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Assuming the conflict remains contained, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to rise […]
Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast of the European Commission: Analysis
On 17 November, the European Commission released a new set of short-term economic projections (these forecasts are published twice a year, in spring and autumn). In a year, much can change, and while some factors such as geopolitical risks and the fragile political environment in France remain, much has shifted since last autumn. Most notably, […]
Fed: Analysis of the September 2025 Meeting
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates as Labour Market Slows At its 17 September meeting, the Federal Reserve approved the first interest rate cut of the year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%. The decision was supported by 11 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with newly appointed Governor […]
ECB: Analysis of the 24 July 2025 meeting
ECB Pause: “In a favourable position”, but trade uncertainties persist As expected, the European Central Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its 24 July meeting, marking the first pause in the current easing cycle since mid-2024. The decision keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, reflecting a more cautious and data-dependent approach […]
Fed: Analysis of the June Meeting
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week for the fourth consecutive meeting, keeping the federal funds rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the US economy as “solid”, noting that although GDP growth slowed slightly in the first quarter, private domestic demand remained strong. He highlighted […]
Analysis of the ECB meeting: April 2025
As expected, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. This level of rates was described as “significantly less restrictive,” leaving open the possibility that policy may now be in neutral territory. According to Christine Lagarde, the decision was unanimous and a 50-basis-point […]
Fed Meeting Analysis: March 19, 2025
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the March 19 meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25–4.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted economic uncertainty resulting from federal layoffs and trade tariffs as key factors behind the upward revision of inflation expectations and the downward revision of growth. Despite this, Powell downplayed concerns […]
ECB Meeting Analysis: March 6, 2025
As widely expected, the ECB announced last week a 25 basis point cut in its key interest rates, marking the sixth rate reduction in nine months, leaving the deposit facility rate at 2.5%, now classified as “significantly less restrictive.” The decision to cut the key rate was supported by projections showing inflation converging toward the 2% target, […]
Analysis of the Fed and ECB Meetings: January 2025
As widely expected, the ECB announced another 25 basis point rate cut (the fourth consecutive), leaving the deposit facility rate at 2.75%. The decision was justified by the weak short-term assessment of economic activity and fragile growth and consumer confidence prospects, which are negatively affecting consumption in the region. Regarding inflation, Christine Lagarde noted that the acceleration […]
Economic and Geopolitical Challenges: What to Expect in 2025
In 2025, the world’s three largest economies — Europe, China, and the United States — face a complex landscape of geopolitical and economic risks. Here are the key challenges to watch this year: Euro Area In 2025, the region will face a challenging environment, characterized by weak domestic growth prospects and significant external threats. Economic […]