![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/IMG_Destaque_Artigo_Reuniao-BCE-abr_24_01_EN-scaled.png\")
<\/p>\nAs expected, last week the ECB once again left its interest rates unchanged, keeping the deposit facility rate at 4%.<\/p>\n
In the monetary policy statement, although the central bank maintained its usual language by stating that it would continue to follow a data-driven approach, it clearly indicated that if ECB Governing Council members felt comfortable with the inflation outlook, and given that it is converging toward the 2% target, they would consider it \u201cappropriate to reduce the current degree of monetary policy restraint.\u201d<\/p>\n
The view that inflation was converging toward its target faster than expected was confirmed for the first time in March, with the revision of the macroeconomic projections prepared by the ECB staff, which lowered the inflation forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3% compared with the December projection.<\/p>\n
Between meetings, the vast majority of ECB Governing Council members also publicly confirmed that the disinflationary process is progressing faster than initially expected. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her post-meeting speech, confirmed that although the central bank expects inflation to fluctuate \u201caround current levels,\u201d it will most likely reach its target in 2025, once again supporting the March projections.<\/p>\n
Regarding the timing of the first rate cut, Lagarde merely reiterated what she has said recently\u2014that the ECB will have \u201cmuch more\u201d data in June, along with new economic projections. However, Lagarde noted that at this meeting some policymakers were already sufficiently comfortable with the available data, indicating that some of them had already supported a rate cut at this month\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n
If there were any doubt that the ECB was considering the first interest rate cut for June, Lagarde confirmed that her speech at last month\u2019s ECB Watchers Conference (where, according to a Bloomberg report, she remarked that it is more likely the ECB will start cutting rates in June) still applies today.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Lagarde commented that the strength of the labor market continues to ease, with fewer job vacancies, alleviating wage pressures\u2014a key concern for the ECB.<\/p>\n
One of the most frequently asked topics at the post-meeting conference was the potential consequences of the ECB starting to reduce financing costs before the Fed, particularly regarding the Euro\u2013US Dollar exchange rate. On this issue, Lagarde noted that the forces driving inflation are quite different in the two regions, and that each economy has its own dynamics, emphasizing the independence of central banks.<\/p>\n
It is also worth noting that it is still difficult to predict the pace of rate cuts following the June meeting. According to the meeting statement, there is no \u201cpre-commitment to a specific rate path.\u201d<\/p>\n
Considering all of this, last week\u2019s meeting merely reinforced the message that ECB Governing Council members have been trying to convey to the markets over the past month\u2014ceteris paribus, June will mark the beginning of the end of the restrictive monetary policy cycle.<\/p>\n
Following the meeting, with five ECB meetings scheduled until the end of the year, markets are pricing in more than an 80% probability of the first rate cut at the next meeting in June, expected at 25bps, and three rate cuts by the end of the year.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.<\/small><\/p>\n
This communication has been produced by Banco Finantia for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. In preparing this communication, no consideration was given to investors\u2019 investment goals, financial situations, or specific needs. Accordingly, the information has not been tailored to any actual or potential investor, nor have any specific circumstances relating to such investors been taken into account.<\/p>\n
The information disclosed is based on market conditions prevailing at the time, as well as on information obtained from recognised third-party entities, which are public sources. Banco Finantia has not independently verified the data or information provided by those entities. As the recipient of this communication is aware of this situation, Banco Finantia cannot, under any circumstances, be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies contained in this document or arising from the use of such information. Banco Finantia accepts no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses or damages that may be incurred by those who carry out transactions based on the information provided.<\/p>\n
Banco Finantia\u2019s investment policy, whether acting on its own account or on behalf of its clients, is entirely independent of the content of this communication. The Banco Finantia Group may hold positions in, or trade, the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, before or after the issuance of this communication, and may also provide, or seek to provide, banking services to the issuers of such securities or financial instruments.<\/p>\n
Banco Finantia\u2019s competent supervisory authority is the CMVM, with which it is registered under number 109.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As expected, last week the ECB once again left its interest rates unchanged, keeping the deposit facility rate at 4%. In the monetary policy statement, although the central bank maintained its usual language by stating that it would continue to follow a data-driven approach, it clearly indicated that if ECB Governing Council members felt comfortable […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":6844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[100,102],"class_list":["post-10193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-corporate-banking","tag-ecb"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10193"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10193\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10377,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10193\/revisions\/10377"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finantia.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}